I'm a chartist and a technical trader. I think that the very first line of analysis is to locate patterns. Line drawing and straight line examination is the standard.
It has been and continues to become the base line tool. Moving averages and range bands are more current developments and are observatory.
Straight line charting has modeled and been utilized to define patterns and set targets for an awfully long time, and I think that you can't throw a pile of lumber of a cliff and have it land within the shape of a house. If it looks like house, a person has been manipulating the lumber.
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Within our Trader Talk Live sessions we chronicled this as it happened and had opportunities to trade the numerous stocks that were doing certain dance steps.
This morning we're right at our predicted target. We moved there within the first hour and stopped. It has been an hour and it is still there.
Gosh, do you believe that perhaps the traders already knew that 1995-2000 was the limit of the existing pattern and that many traders would be incredibly ready and willing to take profits here at a clear pivot point? Now will they? I am not sure.
I am not on the floor. But I don't need to be there to determine the targets. Once they get there, there will be a struggle to test the waters. If the purchasing frenzy will not give way to some shorting or profit taking there may be a test above the mark to see who wants to play.
At any rate the pattern speaks volumes to the premise that in the midst of what may seem like randomness there seems to be a guiding hand. Look folks, there's an excessive amount of money on the line not to have serious efforts to create a certain amount of predictability.
Most all indicators, averages, etc., are following and at best fascinating after the fact. Some are predictive and very accurate in reflecting behavior, but Pattern Analysis of the price action and targeting the next likely TEST of the market sentiment may be the closest and most accurate way of getting close to the game.
The masses take their cue following the test and subsequent direction has begun and your participation in the end is going to be necessary to move the stock or market on towards the testing point.
Even though I do use very few indicators (MACD, WRSI, Stochs) they are consultants and are never the reason I trade. The specific movement across a trigger price, no matter whether it agrees with the indicators or not, determines the trade.
Now the indicators I use are highly accurate but guess what folks, they're not as accurate as the price.
Having said that, there is certainly one tool I insist on trading with and that's Candle Sticks. It's not an indicator; it is my hidden camera within the competition's board room. But that discussion is for a different day.
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